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Are Results of Wars Predictable?
Publication date: 2006-12-31

The new American Secretary of Defence has Made an Interesting Observation, Saying that Once a War is Started, its Outcome Becomes Unpredictable ...

The new American Secretary of Defence has made an interesting observation, saying that once a war is started, its outcome becomes unpredictable.

Not in our experience.

At the very start of the present Iraq War it was clear to us that the US will succeed to occupy Iraq, but will not be able to establish control over it. — They still have no control over Iraq, but are desperately looking for a way out of the mess they have put themselves in by their war.

And in July 2005, at the time when the US body count was around 1,700 we predicted that “if they [the US] stay [in Iraq] till the end of George Bush's presidency, the number of the American deaths in Iraq will exceed those of the 9/11”. — This prediction has already come true — even before the end of George Bush's presidency.

Still at the start of the War on Terror we were saying that this war shall not bring glory to those who had started it. And today both George Bush and Tony Blair have suffered a loss of popularity, while their enemies' support and prestige have increased.

The hanging of Saddam Hussain has not raised the American prestige, nor has it bestowed greater legitimacy on the US presence in Iraq. Saddam Hussain died with dignity, while Bush and Blair, in spite of (or rather because of) all their posings, posturing and pretenses, shall continue to live in disgrace, in spite of having retained their offices.

The War on Terror has not made Israel more secure, nor has it contained anti‐American hostility. The War on Terror from Afghanistan has spread to Iraq, Lebanon, Somalia, and is threatening to spill over to Iran.

And just as it was in Afghanistan, where the US had used the rivalry between the then Taliban Government and the Northern Alliance warlords, they are using the rivalries between the Shi'as and the Sunnies in Iraq, the Somalis and the Ethiopians in Somalia, Hamas and al‐Fatah in Palestine, and the Maronites and Hisbullah in Lebanon.

But will these US engineered conflicts result in establishment of pro‐US, pro‐Israel governments, or will it be just more uncontrollable mess, like the one we see today in Iraq?

Mess it will be, and it will survive the Bush and Blair tenures of office.

The politicals are once again caught in their own trap. Having started a war, they cannot stop it, because they do not want to be seen “loosing” it. Nor can they leave it as it is, because they keep increasing their body count without having achieved any results which would appear to justify it. Nor can they reduce their military presence, because the governments they had installed will not be able to survive without the military protection of those who had installed them.

So the only option left for the politicals is to keep sending in more and more troops, as the US did in Vietnam, and the Russians in Afghanistan.

But this will only keep increasing the body count.

And as the US resources become more and more thinly spread over the “conflict areas”, the relentlessly growing body count shall make it more and more difficult to justify the deaths. And by the end of George Bush's Presidency it is likely to reach (and shall possibly exceed) 5,000.

And, as the body count keeps growing, there shall come a moment of “zero option”, when the only option left will be to “cut and run”, as it happened in Vietnam. And all the “nightmares” they are dreading today, and are trying desperately to prevent will become inescapable reality.

Such are the lessons of all Human History.

The plotting, the scheming and the aggressive become the ultimate victims of their own plots, schemes and aggressions.

So, why the politicals, who control so much wealth and military might have so little ability to predict the results of their actions, let alone achieve their aspirations?

Why do they so stubbornly head towards their own destruction?

Because they are blinded by their vanity and deceived by their own lies. This is what happened to Hitler in Europe, to the Americans in Vietnam, to the Russians in Afghanistan. — The same blind pursuit of Power and Glory, leading to the same inevitable end — Ignominious Defeat.

But there is a positive side to it all. Just as there was a positive side to the Plagues of the European Middle Ages, or to the Fire of London.

The Plagues had lead to advances in Medicine and Hygiene, while the Fire of London had resulted in better Building Standards. And the present War on Terror will teach the People the lesson that Politics — that is government by violence and deception — cannot bring the security people seek. The only way to achieve real security is to abandon Politics and to learn governing the World by Truth, Honesty and Justice. But without the Bush and Blair wars the People would not know that.

So the results of wars are very predictable, but not by those who start their wars.

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